Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 27.669244 30.686800 34.124137 38.383107 43.596885 49.881471 58.210107
2025-05-25 23.180997 26.980528 31.693311 38.156436 47.125907 59.736980 80.159111
2025-06-01 20.365240 24.473377 29.874202 37.850084 50.072686 69.740104 108.766345
2025-06-08 18.462960 22.719008 28.566435 37.725667 52.993598 80.844401 149.665646
2025-06-15 16.988636 21.285683 27.394906 37.429762 55.399955 92.218713 207.718809
2025-06-22 15.911631 20.249494 26.604435 37.501625 58.391277 106.637973 310.244071
2025-06-29 14.949026 19.259848 25.728227 37.218820 60.571823 120.859123 480.199560
2025-07-06 14.554187 19.054259 26.023651 39.014158 67.715822 156.031312 1340.059980
2025-07-13 13.789711 18.211616 25.180266 38.527419 69.512144 176.464040 4069.048402
2025-07-20 13.234062 17.642153 24.721197 38.693093 73.018451 209.844432 NaN
2025-07-27 12.764340 17.167473 24.367041 38.999299 77.073981 255.615343 NaN
2025-08-03 12.246409 16.576867 23.751180 38.652733 79.180347 297.506009 NaN
2025-08-10 11.755931 16.015191 23.165268 38.349854 81.614644 355.749784 NaN
2025-08-17 11.384207 15.625523 22.857110 38.629275 86.245774 466.571206 NaN
2025-08-24 10.988426 15.170268 22.387604 38.465154 89.373416 598.021726 NaN
2025-08-31 10.636582 14.766685 21.978786 38.380902 92.884447 805.909982 NaN
2025-09-07 10.289871 14.351499 21.513588 38.089105 95.531645 1094.953451 NaN
2025-09-14 10.011106 14.036417 21.214281 38.166787 99.949516 1768.702280 NaN
2025-09-21 9.714110 13.674021 20.795158 37.876751 102.653464 2923.663200 NaN
2025-09-28 9.650720 13.712377 21.164727 39.725966 117.602616 819901.716453 NaN
2025-10-05 9.366516 13.347315 20.697401 39.224638 119.628253 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.161587 13.113166 20.479752 39.395327 126.016453 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.981439 12.914387 20.319994 39.710794 133.904901 NaN NaN